(AsiaGameHub) –   Brazil’s Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Miriam Belchior, the presidency’s chief of staff, held a press conference on Friday to declare that prediction markets are unlawful in the nation.

The National Monetary Council (CMN) passed a resolution today detailing permitted products in the derivatives market. It specified that sporting events; virtual online gaming events; and real or virtual events of a political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment, or any other nature are not considered acceptable underlying assets for a derivatives contract.

Brazil’s national telecommunications agency Anatel has already started taking action, blocking 28 platforms offering event contracts, and will continue targeting others that emerge.

Belchior explained during the meeting that confirming prediction markets’ legal status shows Brazil is ongoingly refining its betting regulations.

“Now, we are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil,” she said. “We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses.”

Durigan stressed the government’s stance, noting it had examined the issue and determined that offering bets on random events—such as weather conditions—does not comply with laws passed for sports betting and online gaming.

“Platforms are already being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population,” he warned. “Currently, 28 have been blocked, and others that emerge will face the same fate.”

Prediction markets are in violation of Brazilian law

Durigan stated that since Brazil launched its regulated online gambling market in January 2025, 39,000 unlicensed betting sites have been blocked. He added the government will take the same approach toward prediction market operators. “Our goal is to curb any type of illegal betting,” he said.

Durigan was clear in stating that prediction markets violate the gambling law approved by Congress. “The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. Blocking actions are due to non-compliance with legislation. This market is not provided for in the law, and no one will be permitted to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or similar events.”

Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, noted Brazil’s regulations aim to organize and control activities—like betting. “Betting unrelated to sporting events and online games was excluded from this regulation. Any other type of betting is prohibited,” he emphasized.

Betting framed as a security

“We began seeing the growth of prediction markets, which look much like betting but not as defined by law,” Dudena continued. Predictions had all the characteristics of betting but were presented as a security concern, prompting a request for clarification on what constitutes a derivative in the CMN’s view.

“In response, the CMN [National Monetary Council] excluded predictions from the scope of market offerings.”

Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, said fixed-odds betting is legal and regulated as a public service. “Therefore, authorized platforms must comply with established rules.”

Cardoso added that prediction markets entered Brazil to offer bets disguised as derivatives. “This is illegal and has not been recognized by the Brazilian government,” she declared. “We have reviewed these platforms and identified their dynamics are those of a bet, but not covered by Law 14.790, which only includes fixed-odds betting and online games.”

Blocking orders have been issued

Ricardo Morishita, national consumer secretary, used the opportunity to reaffirm the complete prohibition of prediction markets, as they are not covered by Law 14.790 or the CMN’s resolution. He warned illegal betting poses immense risk to consumers, advising players to seek regulated sites identified by the bet.br domain.

When asked if companies like Polymarket will be prevented from operating in Brazil, Regis Dudena stated all platforms offering services not covered by the SPA or aligned with the CMN resolution will be blocked. This suggests Kalshi— which announced plans to launch a Brazilian offering with XP International last month—also faces blocking.

“Companies offering derivatives will be protected by law, as long as they do not offer products not covered by the National Monetary Council,” he concluded.

This story was originally published in Portuguese on iGB Brasil.